Bottom Fishing

"When is the right time to bottom fish? Is it safe? 

At what price should I buy??"

We've all asked these questions at one point.

And thought it was this easy

I tried experimenting on a LOT of setups.

 I went from this...

(Just watching the stock from afar and do nothing.)

To this...

(When It fails to go up and I end up Ipit.)

Or this...

(When I enter too early)

Or worse....

Bottom Fishing is very RISKY. 

The one main reason being that you are fighting against the trend.

Just ask those who bought ANI at PHP10, 7, 4 or lower because 

of "good fundamentals" or techs being oversold due to the low RSI.

"Respect the RSI my ASS."

So be careful when you come across fundamental gurus 

who talk about technicals. Or technical gurus who suddenly 

talk about fundamentals - Coz that's just funnymentals and 

other made-up crap.

On a sidenote, be careful about what I post and what I tweet.

Coz I'm a crazy trader. And a fictional one at that.

"So why bother Bottom fishing?"

You might ask.

I don't know about you. 

But I bottom fish for these reasons:

1 - Rewards.

Yes it's risky. But if you get it right and you bought with volume,

you might just get a ticket to "financial independence-land."

2 - Bragging Rights. 

I'm a very competitive person. And I love the feeling of

 putting haters and gurung ulols to shame. 

And the fun part of it all is...

Contrary to popular belief,

It ain't rocket science.

"But Zeeeee! How do you know if it's the bottom?"

Simple. I don't.

(Here's a simple flow chart)

You'll only get to see the bottom, once you see the 'ball' 

actually reach the bottom and starts "floating up."

And from there, you react and press the attack.

------------------------------------------------

Example

Tried to bottom fish but barat bids denied. 

Bought 1.23-1.25 for first tranche base then ended 

up buying all i could at the close (Sagasa Order).

Day 1 Of Bounce

Here's the crude selling plan.

Here comes Day two of the  bounce.
(Added 19k. OC ako eh.)

Then Just before selling.

(I love taking screenshots before I sell.)

Some would say, 

"Why would you sell?

You've got such a low AEP!"

Simple answer to that is....

While others cheer that they could at least break even.

I joined the minority in cheering to enjoy some profits.

Total of 3 Days hold. 

No hype. No rumors. No tips. No gurus.

Just the chart and you.

------------------------------------------------

 

CASE STUDY CLOSED!

Happy weekend everyone.

Market Thoughts : FNI

I've seen clans of crazy zealots in my early years 

as a trader in stock forums.

But Facebook has taken things to a whole new level.

I wonder how long this will last.

Volume of Emotions

Great things start with small beginnings.

Most traders when starting out, make the mistake of trading 

with all they have, trading big or going all in - Instead of experimenting and starting small.

The path to a consistent, profitable system, always starts with

 experimentation. Because admit it, even if you read all those 

books and blogs, mimic your favorite guru, watch

 expert trading videos... 

Knowing...

 is very different from Doing.

One of the basic self-check, flow chart a beginner 
must have when trading is this.

It always starts with a trading plan.

And the emphasis is more on the volume of the trade
and your mental state if ever you lost the trade. 

Why?

Because the trader's mental and emotional capacity has an

interesting correlation to the volume of the trade.

Confused?

Here's an example.

Scenario 1:

You allocated 1/10th of your portfolio to DNL.

Whether you win or lose, this will probably be your reaction:

Nothing much really. Because the volume wasn't 

that significant to move your port to begin with.

----------------------------------------------

Scenario 2:

You allocated at least 1/2 of your port to TAPET

at the lows before it went sky high.

Your probable reaction?

#YOLO

You get a confidence boost - Feeling like some 

hero or tyrant that can conquer anything in the world.

----------------------------------------------

Scenario 3:

You went all in FNI because of strong FA and TA.

(Facebook Analysis / Tsismis Analysis)

Your reaction?

(Admit it... you sang that one out)

----------------------------------------------

Makes sense now huh?

Now when you document a trade, add up the numbers. 
And after getting a hefty sum of trades, review and look for 
the plays you are strongest and those that you are weakest.

(Sample Trade Stats)

This doesn't mean that you should stop trading the setups that you
 are weakest. But it should be a challenge for you to experiment
 and practice until you finally get your batting average 
into the green.

These numbers speak out to YOU. Think of the 'wins' column 
as confidence points. The greater the wins you have, the 
more volume you can allocate. The greater the losses 
you have, the lesser the volume you should commit.

When you gain confidence because of the numerous trial and 
errors, and when you can properly handle and tolerate losses to a
 certain degree of exposure, only then should you "up the dose."

I recommend risking only 1-2% of your portfolio per trade. This will allow you to stay longer in the game.  

And why am I emphasizing on Losses? 

Because losses are inevitable.

Also because when I started out, I remembered and learned 
from my losses more than my winning trades. You're already in pain, take something from it.

Everyone loses. But the only time it truly becomes a loss, 
is when you don't learn from the experience.

Case Study : POPI

Dear Students, Dissect and Digest.

This is how the trade was Executed.

(If I remember correctly)

POPI

4.21.2015 - 5.14.2015

Set my Trail Stop at 1.12 Darvas.

But as soon as I saw the red flag on that possible bull trap,

I decided TO BE the confirmation than to WAIT for it.

Ahhh.. So that's how King Geoffrey felt.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Update 6.19.2015

After a breakout from that 1.28, 

POPI zoomed up to as high as 1.59

whipsawing a lot of traders along the way.

Currently, that 1.28 Level is the current line in the sand 

for TF players. Swingers would have their supports 

pegged at 1.42.

Ideal scenario next week for this baby is to gap this up at

the open just 1-3 flucs higher and hold that 1.47 line.

Another scenario would be to flush out all the weaklings

up to 1.42 support (preferably higher) then close this at 

1.47 or higher.

Whatever the case, RSI 70 in the daily must hold if we'd 

like to see another action pumped week for POPI.

If it holds, expect a 2-4 days consolidation

before the next upsurge.

If it doesn't move by then. Be afraid.

Be very afraid.

Smells like PWR/BHI/PHES/APM/IS play all over again.

I wish I had this kind of capital during those days.

Sweet.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Update 6.25.2015

Came so close to another 1M for this month.

Too bad bulls and buying pressure weakened. 

Just an intraday snapshot 'at the highs' current port is lower than this. 

So today's close looks like a potential 'top' for this run.

If we want this money making machine to continue printing 

us more money, we should (ideally) let it rest for a while. 

I hate consolidations. But what's a few weeks of waiting 

for an awesome run right?

If I were the market maker hired to draw POPI, I'd be establishing

 supports at 1.73-1.61 before blasting this off to the 2.xx levels 

and distributing my next batch of shares.

Hopefully these levels hold.

I was able to take a screenshot of this 'event' earlier.

Market makers trying to have a 'big buyer's presence' felt.

The funny thing about this trap is that those small fishes and 

shrimps think that UBS or whoever it is, is on THEIR side - that

This big foreign buyer won't sell at a loss. EVER. Well wrong. 

Coz you never know if UBS is just one of King's many alter egos.

Market Thoughts : Emotional Blackmail

Many great minds have said that Altruism is what 

separates us human beings, from Animals.

Today I would like to talk about Emotional Blackmail in stocks.

This is something very common among today's traders. 

And this happens when you are unable to follow your own trading

 plan on a specific stock, because of fear of relationship sabotage

 - between you and the person or people you have engaged 

with on the particular stock. 

For example:

Karding and I are friends. We bought FNI at 2.5 because at 

that time we both believed It was a good buy. Several weeks later,

 the stock slides down to 2.4. Karding says 

"I'll hold kasi surebol dobol to this 2015."

Because Karding and I are friends, I decide to disregard my trading

 rules and hold. A few months later and I find myself ipit at 

the 1.90s with considerable losses.

I do not regret the decision because I believe that by holding 

the stuck, I have kept our friendship bond strong.

Like a group of ants sinking...

And dying together.

----------------------------------------------------

Emotional blackmail can also be that you harbor strong feelings of

 loyalty to a person that when you sell the stock the person 

says he or she has, you regard this as an act 

of betrayal towards that person.

For Example:

Ernie is a respectable guru. He has one of the best market

 insights and most of his stock picks go up considerably.

One day, I decided to buy FED at 16. A few days later, 

it rose up to 24 and instead of selling, I decided to hold 

because Ernie said

"LBC will backdoor and the chart is good. 

Not to mention the forward earnings of the company.

Sit Tight!"

A few weeks later, FED died and went back to 15. You hold

 despite the loss because you just cannot betray your guru and

 believe that your loyalty will be rewarded.

Like a small male spider attempting to mate 

with a big female black widow. 

You just don't know if it's worth it in the end.

----------------------------------------------------

But the worst kind of Emotional Blackmail is the one 

that does not spring forth out of Altruism.

One that is deliberate.

Example:

I am a guru or a very influencial person. I have many followers. 

I shall buy a stock and after I have had my fill, I will hype 

with all kinds of crap. I will sell and tell them I am still 

holding even though I am not. 

Why? 

"Because my followers love me."

Like The Assassin Bug that uses the bodies of its victims 

as camouflage and at the same time a trophy to attract 

other bugs and victims.

Always remember that in our markets,

 It's eat or be eaten.

So keep things professional. Because by the end of the day, 

your port is yours alone - not your friend's, and 

definitely not your guru's.

Trading Perspective : Prices and 100 MA

It has come to a surprise for me that even after a few brainwashing

 sessions with the new comers, some still don't know the essence of

 the ZS - or maybe some just failed to read my post about it.

(Click Here to know about the Zeus Strike)

Maybe that explanation was too action packed and geeky.

So here's a fresh perspective for the ladies and the romantics.

This is Romeo

And This is Juliet

And yes. She's upside down.

Or it could be that Romeo is the one who's upside down.
My head is starting to hurt. Let's just say they live in
a very complicated world.

They are lovers. 

They don't know it yet. But they are.

Confused? Don't worry. I'm confused too.

Now here's a chart.

Imagine that blue line to be Romeo. 

He's smooth and determined.

And Juliet, the violet line. 

She's fickle minded.

Now they haven't seen each other for a very long time.

What do you think happens when they do?

MAGIC!

Music Plays in background: "sometimes when we tats!"