Why do traders fail to cut?

Every trader has a specific range for pain tolerance. 

In my years of being a mentor, the average range and threshold for traders is around 7% of their total portfolio.

For example, if a trader has a total of 1M in his portfolio, he'd be able to psychologically withstand a 70k loss in a day and still be able to act with the right judgment.

Oh, I gotta cut this pain in the ass? Alright. 

*order filled*

Of course, the trader will still feel pain and frustration but he'll manage to cut his losses and move on quickly.

However, there are many instances during a trader's life that he'll find himself in volatile situations. BSC, PHA, AR, APL suddenly breaks support and waterfalls quickly. Because of this, I got several consultations done - a few from my team who manages our company funds in ZFTCapital and some who are in our community in TradingRepublic.

All had the same reaction : 

Ang bilis, hindi ako naka-react!

But here are the most common factors:

1. They over-allocated.

Prior to this crash, making money in these stocks had been easy. Winning makes you confident. Confidence unchecked can lead to Greed. Greed leads to the disrespect of risk management.

2. They had 2 or more of these names at that time and no automated stop was set.

This is a classic case of trying to catch two or more rabbits at the same time. You won't catch any - especially if you're hunting in bad market conditions where there's a high chance that the trade goes against you. If you are trading with multiple accounts and do the same trades, you've signed a deathwish. Save yourself from the stress and just consolidate your funds into 1 or 2.

It's ok to chase when you're riding the trend. But if you are counter-trend trading, that's a different story. Focus is key.

And lastly,

3. They went beyond their pain threshold.

Going beyond your pain threshold adds the "in" in sanity. Once you cross your limit and if you aren't prepared for this scenario and if it is your first time, you'll most probably FREEZE. It isn't because you don't know what to do, oh you know that you need to cut, it's just that your psych isn't ready for this shit. It wouldn't have been a problem if the drop was slow because it would have given the trader more time and emotional energy to react. But these things are never slow. 

Now you know why Roadkills happen.

The Rise of Super Basuras : Thoughts, Confessions, Warnings

Before you continue reading, If you have AR, IS or any 3rd liner stock that you have or are planning to buy, then this post is for you. If you don't play 3rd liners, then you better waste your time somewhere else.

Thank you!

A lot of people have been asking me if I have IS or AR. Or if I knew what was happening to these two and why. And I'm sure there are a lot of Rumors and "Facts" and crazy Target Prices circling around the internet. But to answer all those PM's , DM's and future M's, I would like to say: "I have no idea." 

Allow me to explain.

A few months ago, I started to keep my distance from forums, social media groups, and even my buddies relating to stocks. I know that feeling of chasing stocks and wanting to know what's going on. But I'd like to tell you right now that knowing the rumors or even the facts don't really help much - even if those are 1st hand facts!

Oh please tell me more about those "FACTS"

And there's a very good reason why the experts call it "Market Noise." 

In my years of trading, I have lost more money by listening and putting my faith and hope to these rumors and facts than me 'dart-boarding' 3rd liners. And that, my dear readers and students, is a fact. Everybody starts as noobs. But not everybody grows to be traders. (or *ahem* professional Basureros)

No matter how you look at it, when Playing with Basuras, It's BURN or BE BURNED

Now before I proceed any further, I would just like to set the record straight, I am not endorsing these stocks. Although in a way, I am. But you get the point right? Before you enter into the trade, do your homework. Don't copy. And don't say crap like "But my plan is to follow YOUR plan!" Because when that plan fails and things go sour, you'd most probably play the blame game. But in reality, the only one that deserves that blame is you.


Unless of course your "Guru" pressed that darned Buy button for you!

"Oooooops."

Am I being too emotional?

Here's a little chick from the farm to send you good vibes.

"nawwwww"

Alright, now let's get into those charts.

AR

 Now, you've probably seen and heard of the common TP's and charts, so I present to you a "what if" the current 52 week high ( .0086) and the psychological .01 get's broken scenario, then what? There are probably a lot of resistances after .01 but the boss of resistances after that is at .013

Again, only consider this scenario possible when the current 52 week high gets broken.

AR 10-Year Monthly Chart

I'm not really a fan of patatas stocks. I got burned a lot of times because of listening to this "Guru" and his Anointed Ones. But I'm thankful for his existence - And to all the other "Gurus" and Backstabbers. For I survived and learned how to smell sh!t and propaganda from a mile away. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IS

IS 3 Month Daily Chart

I hate to explain things over and over again. So I'll just leave this link here.
http://zeefreaks.blogspot.com/2012/10/apm-rise-of-borg.html

I would just like to add: when a stock breaks it's ATH (All Time High) , there are NO exact TPs (Target Prices). Those are just illusions. Like experiencing and chasing after a mirage in the middle of a desert or some god-forsaken place.






I had a good chat with a friend who had IS and told me that he sold his shares at 0.5 because apparently, his tipster told him that the dear 'Jocks' had set the TP and run until 0.5 only.

He was so happy his 0.5 GTC sell got hit.

Dear friend, if you are reading this I do hope you don't skin your tipster alive this coming Monday.

"SHHHTAAAP!" 

So don't set TPs. Just don't. 
Set TSs (Trailing Stops) instead.

Folks, just remember that by the end of the day, no matter how crappy or fundamentally sound the stock, it is emotions that drive the price, quantified and simplified into those little cute things you call candlesticks.

If you're wondering how my port is doing after a long hiatus:

(Click Image to Enlarge)

And btw, I made a quiz just for fun and in connection to my last blogpost. Which Trader Alignment do you have?

Click here to take the test.

Have Fun!

Basura Plays: AR

Gaps and The Illusion of Demand

"I Want mAR!"
Photo taken from http://www.ehow.com/how_4451534_repel-dogs.html

By sacrificing a million worth of shares to make a gap, 
big players create the illusion of demand and enable them 
to unload more shares for a higher profit.

AR Daily Chart