Tuesday, November 24, 2015

The Broke Analysis

"Ano kaya alam ni DEUTSCHE that we don't? Insider siguro to!
 Wala namang bibili ng ganyan karami tapos papalugi lang."

These were the things my speculative mind dwelt on during my 
early years as a trader. Broker analysis. It was such a fun thing to
 do back then. I felt like I was some kind of detective looking for 
clues as to where the big mafia boss would strike next.

It gave me added conviction as to whether I would buy, hold or sell.

"Holding pa si TOWER, I'll sell when they sell."
"Ayan nanaman VENTURE the tsupitero! Ingat na!"
"Daming COL bumili. Time to sell."

I always focused on who was buying and didn't pay much 
detail as to who was selling.

It's funny when I think about it now.

Then one day, somebody told me about these... 
"pasaload" moves - where a client can move his or her shares 
to another broker overnight with less than a a hundred bucks.

I was dumbfounded.

(well not really everything but for the most of it, yes.)

I could still remember my dismay as I walked out of the room 
and verbally abused my cat. It was such a waste 
of precious time and energy.

I remembered all the setups I missed for fear of who was selling.
 And all the trap setups I bought because of following
 who was buying.

I was a fool.

So what if brokers and clients are selling at a loss?
It's not my money. For all we know they might be just 
newbies with lots of money to burn. And you definitely
don't want to follow those people.

Maybe that's why they call it Broker analysis?
Because at some point, you might just go Broke.

But after much study and getting my shit together, there was relief.
 Raw data in the charts proved that it was enough. 
That there was no need for me to study 
who's buying or selling.

Be it brokers with big foreign names or a group of retail COL
 clients or traders, and whether market makers and operators 
exist or not, well... 

It won't matter.

Because those cute candles are all I need.


PS : I would like to apologize to my blog readers for my previous
 posts that had broker analysis in it. I won't be deleting or 
editing those posts for me and for future readers to see 
how my journey went.

Friday, November 20, 2015

Bottom Fishing : SSI

Sample Journal

Trade Type : Bottom Fishing
Difficulty : Hard

Started buying at the close of 11.16.2015
And since I like to close my positions to significant whole
 numbers, added more the next day intraday. 1M shares can easily
be liquidated once momentum sets in and especially for a 
stock like SSI. I'll just have to sell in tranhces. Or not.

I wonder how far this will go. 
Crossing fingers it will be just like that FNI trade.

I was travelling while doing this trade.
Why do these kinds of near perfect setups pop up when I travel? 

I left some cash in case some quick tsupitas appear.

Monday, November 16, 2015

What is the price of your Trust?

As a trader or maybe as an investor, you just have 
to ask this question on every stock.

In any relationship, you cannot fully have faith in someone if they
 have not proven themselves to you over time. Friends and family
 can vouch for people, but that doesn't automatically merit trust.

It's the same with stocks. 

Now let me introduce you to Bob and his journey with SSI. 
(Since a lot of people are dying for an opinion on this stuck)

Bob is the average trader who was able to get some SSI at IPO
 price and is currently holding for long term because according 
to his broker, his guru, family and friends,

"Maganda fundamentals netoh! Bagger!" 


Sometimes I wonder what Bob's definition is and what his
 parameters are when he says "Long Term." 
He should think about it. 

Here's the rest of the story...
(Click Image to Enlarge)

Actions speak louder than words. We all agree on this one right?
If they say SSI has excellent fundamentals and that there's 
nothing wrong with it, then why is the price action 
telling another story?

But what Bob doesn't realize is that he unfortunately put his 
trust in people, which is very hard to quantify and not on the stock's
 (SSI) price. This is also the very reason why he refuses to cut. 

If SSI was a person, you'd probably execute or bitch 
slap the hell out of him or her. Nobody likes a lying bastard.

So if ever you find yourself being betrayed by the price 
action of your beloved stock, better ask yourself,

"What is the price of my Trust?"

Do yourself a favor and don't be a martyr like Bob.