Thursday, December 31, 2015

How to Sell and Set Target Prices for Dummies

Are you tired of  people asking you for a stock's TP?
Or maybe you yourself are tired of asking others for stock TPs?

Whatever reason you may have, Fear not. 

For here are 3 easy steps to get a stock's target price.

*There are many variations as to how TPs are calculated. 
But this is the basic template we use in ZFT.

Step 1 : Find a stock 

Most public participants would usually pick stocks that are the talk
 of the town. Hot stocks that rally like there's no tomorrow. Or 
probably stocks that were once hot and trying to get back
to the limelight.

For this example let us look at ION.

 Oh such memories we all had on this one...

Step 2 : Find recent
 Support and Resistance Levels

Assuming market interest has died down but the stock still has 
good trade potential, look for the recent and immediate support
and resistance levels.

For this example, we take 2.63 as the immediate resistance 
and 2.04 as the immediate support.

Step 3 : Hype Calculate

Calculations aren't that hard.

Target Price = (Resistance - Support) + Resistance

You can download this TP Calculator 
I made for you guys if you wish.

There have been many instances wherein the TP gets hit exactly at
 the sweet spot. But there are also times when the prices 
overshoots or don't even reach the intended TP price.

We offset these instances by tranche selling into 
a 4% buffer zone from the TP level.

Example : 

If I had 300k Shares on ION, I would sell in 
3 Equal Tranches at 100k each.

1st Tranche Sell : Low End Buffer (3.09)
2nd Tranche Sell : High End Buffer (3.35)
3rd Tranche Sell : At Target Price (3.22)

If I had more shares, I'd have more tranches.

In this case If I were a TP (Target Price) oriented trader, 
as opposed to being a TS (Trailing Stop) oriented trader, 
I would sell my shares double to half the average bid/ask 
volume per fluc.

Board as of Dec 29, 2015 (Market Close)

So I'd sell 200k - 50k ION shares per Fluc until I run out.
By doing this, I wouldn't cause sudden price spikes and panic.

Remember to always manage expectations. It's better to expect less
 and hit your target than to expect tapos papaasahin ka lang nya at
 iiwan sa ere. #hugot

(darn you berlin-artparasites)

But be wary of Target price computations. Not all materialize.
And if ever you see someone giving out TPs that are too good to 
be true or out of this world, ask them how they got it.

Trust me, you wouldn't want to be holding stocks that are being
 hyped from computations that are derived from smoking pot.

Again, there are many ways to compute target prices.
This is just ONE of the many.

Happy Hunting and Hype Responsibly!

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

2015 Trophy Trades

We in ZFT strive for excellence.
#Realtrades more than mere #Realtalk

For what is all your talk of wealth if you can't even show proof?

Here are the few trophy trades from my hunting for this year.
Click Images to Enlarge.

 Baseline From Jan-Jul : 2M
Withdrawals : 2.8M

Baseline From Jul-Present : 3M
Withdrawals : 1.49M

Total Withdrawals : 4.29M

*Current as of 12.28.2015 Closing

Hopefully some of the ZFTs would share their 
hunting results as well.

2015 was a Blast. 2016 would hopefully be Epic.
Wishing everyone in the trading community a prosperous 2016!

Monday, December 28, 2015

Gurus and Reversals

I've seen a lot of people saying "reversal na sa MCP."

And depending on a trader's perspective, this could be true or false.
 It may be a reversal on the very short term, but what about 
the long term?

Technically speaking, if we want to have a bullish reversal on
 MCP, R2 and R1 levels on the chart above must be taken out first.
And overall trends don't always shift overnight.

I'm not bashing. I'm just tired of the people messaging me their sad
 stories of how they've lost their hard earned money for believing 
"credible" sources.

Remember FNI? The ulols have been calling a reversal on it since 
the 2.xx levels. Halos lahat na ng hype analysis, ginamit.
Fundamentals, All kinds of technical patterns, Candlestick analysis,
  Broker analysis, Kwentong Barbero Analysis, 
"Reverse Chart" etc.

Where is it now? 

And when the damage has been done, they'll just give you that 
"you pressed that button" BS and hand you all the blame.

If the teacher taught something wrong, 
should the student shoulder all the blame?

It's amazing how gurung ulols have successfully brainwashed the
 public so they'd come out clean after several disaster calls.

So if you're just starting out as a trader and planning to buy MCP
 because of all the "reversal" posts you're reading in FB groups. 

Be wary. 

Your city of dreams might end up in the hut of nightmares.

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Balance in the Markets

For a few to be immortal, many must die.

The stock market is like an ecosystem. 
Everyone seeks life - Only a few find it. 
And many who tread its road easily find death.

A few years of basking in the sun and moon of the markets and I
 have come to see these glimpses of  truths. And while it might 
look overwhelming, I've learned to keep things simple.

Let me try to walk you through to what I'm talking about.

Imagine a jungle with a wide spectrum of animals and plants. 
If you take away one sector in the animal or plant kingdom, 
a great imbalance would happen over time. 

For example, if you take away the reptiles you can find in that
 jungle, most especially to the snakes since most of the human race
 just hates or fears them - a rodent problem would likely arise. 
For there would be one less family to balance things out.

An explosion of the rodent populace would mean devastating
 consequences to any life form that these cute and furry beings have
 taken a liking to. And this would lead to the weakening or
 destruction of the kingdoms that interact with the rodent's meal
 - be it a plant, an insect,  or whatever these things can 
sink their little sharp teeth on. 

The eco-system where you put all the damned 
snakes wouldn't be happy as well. 

May dedicated hugot dun ah. 
(Not that I have any.)

The rodents would obviously be happy. But only for a time. 
Once there's no more food for them, they too will suffer.


Side comments : Looking back at that food web, baboons are pretty
 bad ass for eating snakes. And I had no idea skunks eat birds. 
Now i'm not even sure if this is accurate after googling. 
I am currently mind effed.


Technicians, Fundamentalists and Speculators. 

These are the three Kingdoms in the stock market ecosystem that
 bring forth balance. Take one out, and everyone suffers in one 
way or another.

If everybody were fundamentalists, we'd probably have no 3rd liner
 plays and we'll have a really slow market since no one would be
 buying until the next quarterly report. Just imagine the 
tension build up.

If everyone were trend follower technicians, nobody would be
 buying anything that's down trending and there'd be no one to
 absorb the selling pressure when things go bad. 

If there were no speculators, we'd have a hard time 
looking for super stocks.

And that's why you should always thank those who are on the other
 side of the trade or those who have a different trading system than
 yours. I myself have great respect for Gurung ulols, tipsters, 
rumor mongers, crowd herders and even 
those "feeling-jockey" groups. 

They are my Heroes. For without them, I'd have no one to
 sell my shares to. They die for my sake. 

And occasionally If things don't do well with me 
on a trade, I return the favor.

This is the reality of the markets.

There could be times when one race would reign superior, 
but nature always finds a way to balance things out. Remember the
 CAL millionaires? Where are most of them now?
How about the JAP Lovers? The FNI boys? 

Are most of them still alive and kicking? 

Some monkey out there is probably well off and doing a better job.


And while all living things created are different in some way 
or another, they have these things in common :


The need to interact with their own 
kind or to other species.

The need to consume. 

The need to rest. 


These are important patterns.
If you're a hunter, you don't go in for the kill when your target is 
on full alert. You execute when they are at their weakest. 
And you wait for that perfect moment.

It's the same with stocks and their cycles. So think of stocks as 
different kinds of animals with unique behavior patterns. They get
 introduced to the ecosystem, interact with the players, they make
 weak and strong trends, up, down, sideways then back again. 
And maybe at one point, just cease to be significant and die.

And you are a hunter. 
It is your job to either kill for meat
or capture and domesticate.

The problem with most traders and investors is the lack 
of conviction. Maybe conviction to their capacity as a person, 
 to the tool or weapon they use, which is their trading system.

This is the average trader/investor

Most come into the markets not realizing what's ahead. 
They come unprepared and defenseless.

It's a jungle out there. And everything in it 
wants to eat or destroy you.

This is what's out there...

This lack of confidence is what destroys them.
For what is an excellent trading system or a weapon
in the hands of a coward?

Sometimes I contemplate If I should just keep my trading

 systems to myself and to the people I've taught. I fear not being 
outclassed in my own system and my kind of game. 

don't want to be selfish or anything  But I fear
 the consequences of having something powerful wielded
 by idiots. I can just imagine the horror of having a perfect chart 
destroyed because of the lack of patience and poor execution.

If there's one thing nature has taught us,

 It's Balance.

If you can't adjust, the market always finds 
a way to balance you out.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Personal Notes Series 004 : Life of A High Risk Trader

There are days when i wake up in the morning late, like 9AM 
and feel the want to work and dress up like a proper gentlemen 
with a suit and tie, but then i go "what the hell" 

...then end up just wearing the tie.


Trading is a craft that pays a lot when mastered.
And Full time traders are a mystery to many. Aside from being a
 fraction of a fraction in the general populace, civilians don't see
 them much, and when traders do show up in public, some 
don't talk much about their trading lives. Maybe some people do. 
I don't know.

So what's it like being a full time trader?

I am but one sample. So don't take my word for 
what you are about to read. 

Here are my top pros and cons of going full time in this industry.

(Pros) # 1 
You own your time.

No schedules. No deadlines.

Imagine all the trips! The leaves you can take. And you 
get to decide when to take a break from that break!

Bliss. You get to do what you want, when you want. 
And that is the kind of freedom almost everybody wants. 

(Pros) # 2 
You can work anywhere as long as you have 
internet and your workstation (or smartphone).

Work on the go? No problem! 

PD : I've traded on a public jeep, bus, van, ship, even on a 
plane! (until it took off and cut my internet signal)


And just imagine having a peaceful, non toxic, no traffic to work
 environment. You could even swim and trade at the same time,
 just buy a waterproof smartphone so you can stupidly show off 
how flexible you can be while getting the job done. 

(Pros) # 3 
You set the pace

No constant external and annoying force telling you to finish 
something before the deadline - then adds more load to the pile. 
Of course there's that pressure from within, telling you to earn, 
and to trade. But that's a whole lot better than a naggy, 
bossy boss right?

It even gets awesome when you hit your personal profit 
quota that's good for months or even a year.


Now for my top Cons of being a full time trader.

(Cons) # 1. 
Too much time on your hands.

Yes you've got the freedom to do whatever you want at any time. 
How is it bad you ask? Well, you get used to it and it gets boring
 after a while. At some point you'll be surprised when one day you
 find out that you actually HATE holidays and moments when the 
markets are closed for some reason.

It's like a love and hate relationship. Like when you were in 
 school and you can't wait for the sem-break. And when that break
 finally arrives, you go... "now what?" and suddenly miss school.

Your friends and family would think you've gone crazy for loving
 Mondays and hating Fridays. But that's just how it is with you. 
It's your passion. You just can't wait to trade.

(Cons) # 2. 
The Temptation of Creative Procrastination.

I've already mentioned in my previous posts how lazy I am. 
That instead of investing or doing something worthwhile, I tend to
 procrastinate. Of course, studying charts, patterns, and back testing
 are all part of my daily routine. But What else are you going to do
 with all that time that's not market related?

Being lazy in this industry can be devastating to 
one's health and lifestyle.

There were times in my trading life when I'd just sleep after 
trading hours. Maybe play one PC game I like. Browse Facebook. 
Unproductively surf the net. Watch a whole set of TV series. 
Then repeat the whole cycle next day.

And as for exercise? 

There was a season In my trading life when the time and effort I 
spent walking from my trading room to the kitchen, to the dining
 area to have my meal, then back to my room was 
my "form" of exercise. 

I wasn't just good at procrastinating. 
I took it to a whole new level.
I was a master of it. 


Alright Alright. Sometimes it still is.

And you'll have so much wealth in your port, 
it will spill over to your body as well! 

I tried to gamify my life and at one point, i finally reached
 the "Bio-Armor" achievement - by not taking a bath for 5 days. 

Uhgr. I might say more things I'd regret... The point is, you have to
 pull yourself together and make an effort to develop 
good habits, proper time management and discipline. 

(Cons) # 3. 
Abnormal or Dead social life.

After a while, it gets lonely.

This is my main frustration as a trader. I feel like nobody 
understands me. The experience of gaining and losing in the
 market is just too hard to comprehend for the average person 
who has little to no idea on how the markets work. 

I've got no boss, so I can hardly relate anymore to civilian boss 
related rants and jokes. And if ever I pull one out, they'd just brush
 it off since they've heard it like a thousand times already. 

When I try to reach and hang out with my non-stocks buddies, It's
 different. I've got time. They don't. And this becomes a big issue. 
The trips I want to take, the length, and how I take it has become
so different, 
you'd instantly become the odd one out. 

I guess it's kind of better because It doesn't kill off your
 relationships the fast way like some networking "businesses" do.


Most people think that we create money out of thin air just by
 sitting and clicking some buttons. And that's that. No wonder most 
think it's a Scam. It's sounds too good to be true. A dream. 


Fitting in society would be one heck of a challenge. I have learned 
not to demand from my civilian friends. Because sometimes when I
do, I get that

"Oh I'm sorry we're not like you!" card.

I believe trading the markets is one of the most strenuous things a person can do. Not only will you have to work hard burning the late night candle, but you will also have to sacrifice a lot - even some relationships. It is definitely not for the weak. But to those are brave enough to accept the consequences and challenges of taking this path. The rewards are truly fulfilling - that is, if you survive. 

How about you? What are your Pros and Cons?

Monday, December 14, 2015

Trading and War

"When the market speaks, we listen."

A few weeks ago I started accumulating a potential super play. 
With its setup and liquidity and everything else taken into
 consideration, I decided to go for the trade.


Of course It wouldn't be all in one day. Certain parameters must be
 set and confirmed. We enter a trade because we believe it will 
show us a profit. But even with a bullish bias, I keep a level mind.
 Before I enter, I know my stops.

Unfortunately for me today, the 
market has spoken against my bias.

And I listen.

If the stock rallies and I get whipped, it's fine. 
I can always buy back.

Trading is like war. 

It does not determine who is right... only who is left.

Friday, December 11, 2015

Zeefreaks and Atlas

This is one of those nights when I just feel like basking in the
 moonlight, wishing to be present in the emptiness of space.

Evoking, surrounding myself with melancholy. What is this piece
 of art? I relish the moment of serene sadness as I listen to its
 melody. A fusion and a rift of the complex and of the simple. 
I close my eyes to gaze at the depths of this beauty.


I feel that If I put more words to describe this masterpiece, 
I wouldn't be doing it any justice.

Thursday, December 3, 2015

Personal Notes Series 003 : Ordeals and Purpose

It's been 5 solid years since I started active trading. And as I look back to all that I've been through - the memories of all the good and bad experiences, It still feels as if it's not enough, and that I know nothing.

There are days when I wake and think 
"How the hell did I got this far?"

I wasn't a full time trader when I started.

And as I an idealist, it was hard to live in a corrupted world.

I remember my strong distaste for having a job and working for bosses and supervisors that disregarded excellence, progress and innovation. It saddened me when I saw the people in power, tripping and bullying those who were weak. I know how it feels to be weak and I wanted to be a defender. A hero. But it always broke my heart when I was deemed wrong and had to suffer the consequences whenever I tried standing up to evil.

"Tiis ka lang. Matatapos din to."

But for how long?

I guess that was one of the reasons that pushed me to where I am
 now. I swore that time not bow down to anyone but God.

Trading was the perfect escape. 

No forced "OT"
No corrupt BOSS
No job I didn't like

I was naive. So I Borrowed trading money and took the leap of faith.

There were seasons when I lost a lot and almost went crazy. Just imagine borrowing 4 Million and Lose 3M+ , then all of a sudden the people who you borrowed from (who by the way, don't know each other) would ask for their money at the same time.

But looking at how things went, I know that I had to go through that terrible experience for a reason.

I got to know and experience that there really is a God out there.
That it wasn't just tradition or religion.

I got to understand who I was, that I had purpose in life.
To inspire others. (Naiinspire nga ba kayo?) 
To set an example. A standard.

And be a testimony of God's love and principles.

I look at some of my trades and go


But deep inside I understand that it is by God's power and principles that I am able to pull off trades beyond the average trader. For I know very well who I am - that I do not always have the patience nor the discipline.

I remember another experience, of God telling me one time to divide and give 6 figures to several groups of people. And during this time, I had a 7 figure loss In my port. It was hard. But I had faith.

"If God won't save me on this ordeal, I'll just have my favorite food
 for the rest of the year - or the rest of  my life lang naman."

Of course I would be lying If I said I didn't have my doubts.

"Honor the Lord with your wealth and with the best part of 
everything you produce. Then He will fill your barns with grain,
 and your vats will overflow with good wine."

What BS is this?

Common sense would tell us that it is always better to receive than
 to give. Giving is an honorable act. But who in their right mind
 thinks giving is better than receiving?

 But I tell you, try the principle above and you'll be surprised.

Tithing or surrendering 10% of what you have to God can do wonders.
Imagine what God can do if you act in faith and give more.

I guess sooner or later we'll end up like William Colgate.

5 Awesome roller coaster years.

Not sure how I'll end this post. So I will just share what happened several nights ago when we had an open chat with non ZFT Traders. We had a great time. I had a great time. And after all the technical and personal questions people had, one student asked me this:

(Ano nga ba? What's yours?)

Of course "Pills" wasn't my answer.

"The essence of being a trader? 
parang miss universe lang ah..."

"To be a master of one's emotions and 
to risk not just for one's own benefit 
but for others."

-Love ZF