Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Bottom Fishing




"When is the right time to bottom fish? Is it safe? 
At what price should I buy??"

We've all asked these questions at one point.
And thought it was this easy


I tried experimenting on a LOT of setups.


 I went from this...
(Just watching the stock from afar and do nothing.)




To this...
(When It fails to go up and I end up Ipit.)




Or this...
(When I enter too early)



Or worse....




Bottom Fishing is very RISKY. 

The one main reason being that you are fighting against the trend.


Just ask those who bought ANI at PHP10, 7, 4 or lower because 
of "good fundamentals" or techs being oversold due to the low RSI.



"Respect the RSI my ASS."

So be careful when you come across fundamental gurus 
who talk about technicals. Or technical gurus who suddenly 
talk about fundamentals - Coz that's just funnymentals and 
other made-up crap.


On a sidenote, be careful about what I post and what I tweet.
Coz I'm a crazy trader. And a fictional one at that.


"So why bother Bottom fishing?"
You might ask.


I don't know about you. 
But I bottom fish for these reasons:

1 - Rewards.

Yes it's risky. But if you get it right and you bought with volume,
you might just get a ticket to "financial independence-land."


2 - Bragging Rights. 

I'm a very competitive person. And I love the feeling of
 putting haters and gurung ulols to shame. 


And the fun part of it all is...
Contrary to popular belief,
It ain't rocket science.




"But Zeeeee! How do you know if it's the bottom?"

Simple. I don't.

(Here's a simple flow chart)



You'll only get to see the bottom, once you see the 'ball' 
actually reach the bottom and starts "floating up."
And from there, you react and press the attack.


------------------------------------------------

Example




Tried to bottom fish but barat bids denied. 
Bought 1.23-1.25 for first tranche base then ended 
up buying all i could at the close (Sagasa Order).




Day 1 Of Bounce


Here's the crude selling plan.




Here comes Day two of the  bounce.
(Added 19k. OC ako eh.)





Then Just before selling.
(I love taking screenshots before I sell.)





Some would say, 
"Why would you sell?
You've got such a low AEP!"

Simple answer to that is....











While others cheer that they could at least break even.
I joined the minority in cheering to enjoy some profits.

Total of 3 Days hold. 
No hype. No rumors. No tips. No gurus.
Just the chart and you.

------------------------------------------------



 


CASE STUDY CLOSED!

Happy weekend everyone.




Market Thoughts : FNI



I've seen clans of crazy zealots in my early years 
as a trader in stock forums.

But Facebook has taken things to a whole new level.






I wonder how long this will last.



Saturday, May 23, 2015

Volume of Emotions





Great things start with small beginnings.


Most traders when starting out, make the mistake of trading 
with all they have, trading big or going all in - Instead of experimenting and starting small.

The path to a consistent, profitable system, always starts with
 experimentation. Because admit it, even if you read all those 
books and blogs, mimic your favorite guru, watch
 expert trading videos... 

Knowing...

 is very different from Doing.

One of the basic self-check, flow chart a beginner 
must have when trading is this.



It always starts with a trading plan.
And the emphasis is more on the volume of the trade
and your mental state if ever you lost the trade. 

Why?

Because the trader's mental and emotional capacity has an
interesting correlation to the volume of the trade.

Confused?
Here's an example.

Scenario 1:

You allocated 1/10th of your portfolio to DNL.
Whether you win or lose, this will probably be your reaction:



Nothing much really. Because the volume wasn't 
that significant to move your port to begin with.

----------------------------------------------


Scenario 2:

You allocated at least 1/2 of your port to TAPET
at the lows before it went sky high.



Your probable reaction?

#YOLO



You get a confidence boost - Feeling like some 
hero or tyrant that can conquer anything in the world.

----------------------------------------------


Scenario 3:

You went all in FNI because of strong FA and TA.
(Facebook Analysis / Tsismis Analysis)



Your reaction?



(Admit it... you sang that one out)

----------------------------------------------

Makes sense now huh?


Now when you document a trade, add up the numbers. 
And after getting a hefty sum of trades, review and look for 
the plays you are strongest and those that you are weakest.


(Sample Trade Stats)



This doesn't mean that you should stop trading the setups that you
 are weakest. But it should be a challenge for you to experiment
 and practice until you finally get your batting average 
into the green.

These numbers speak out to YOU. Think of the 'wins' column 
as confidence points. The greater the wins you have, the 
more volume you can allocate. The greater the losses 
you have, the lesser the volume you should commit.


When you gain confidence because of the numerous trial and 
errors, and when you can properly handle and tolerate losses to a
 certain degree of exposure, only then should you "up the dose."




Now why am I emphasizing on Losses? 

Because when I started out, I remembered and learned 
from my losses more than my winning trades.

Everyone loses. But the only time it truly becomes a loss, 
is when you don't learn from the experience.




Thursday, May 14, 2015

Case Study : POPI




Dear Students, Dissect and Digest.
This is how the trade was Executed.
(If I remember correctly)

POPI
4.21.2015 - 5.14.2015



Set my Trail Stop at 1.12 Darvas.
But as soon as I saw the red flag on that possible bull trap,
I decided TO BE the confirmation than to WAIT for it.





Ahhh.. So that's how King Geoffrey felt.








---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Update 6.19.2015

After a breakout from that 1.28, 
POPI zoomed up to as high as 1.59
whipsawing a lot of traders along the way.





Currently, that 1.28 Level is the current line in the sand 
for TF players. Swingers would have their supports 
pegged at 1.42.

Ideal scenario next week for this baby is to gap this up at
the open just 1-3 flucs higher and hold that 1.47 line.

Another scenario would be to flush out all the weaklings
up to 1.42 support (preferably higher) then close this at 
1.47 or higher.

Whatever the case, RSI 70 in the daily must hold if we'd 
like to see another action pumped week for POPI.
If it holds, expect a 2-4 days consolidation
before the next upsurge.

If it doesn't move by then. Be afraid.
Be very afraid.


Smells like PWR/BHI/PHES/APM/IS play all over again.
I wish I had this kind of capital during those days.

Sweet.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Update 6.25.2015

Came so close to another 1M for this month.
Too bad bulls and buying pressure weakened. 


Just an intraday snapshot 'at the highs' current port is lower than this. 





So today's close looks like a potential 'top' for this run.
If we want this money making machine to continue printing 
us more money, we should (ideally) let it rest for a while. 
I hate consolidations. But what's a few weeks of waiting 
for an awesome run right?

If I were the market maker hired to draw POPI, I'd be establishing
 supports at 1.73-1.61 before blasting this off to the 2.xx levels 
and distributing my next batch of shares.

Hopefully these levels hold.



I was able to take a screenshot of this 'event' earlier.
Market makers trying to have a 'big buyer's presence' felt.

The funny thing about this trap is that those small fishes and 
shrimps think that UBS or whoever it is, is on THEIR side - that
This big foreign buyer won't sell at a loss. EVER. Well wrong. 
Coz you never know if UBS is just one of King's many alter egos.




Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Market Thoughts : Emotional Blackmail





Many great minds have said that Altruism is what 
separates us human beings, from Animals.


Today I would like to talk about Emotional Blackmail in stocks.

This is something very common among today's traders. 
And this happens when you are unable to follow your own trading
 plan on a specific stock, because of fear of relationship sabotage
 - between you and the person or people you have engaged 
with on the particular stock. 

For example:

Karding and I are friends. We bought FNI at 2.5 because at 
that time we both believed It was a good buy. Several weeks later,
 the stock slides down to 2.4. Karding says 

"I'll hold kasi surebol dobol to this 2015."

Because Karding and I are friends, I decide to disregard my trading
 rules and hold. A few months later and I find myself ipit at 
the 1.90s with considerable losses.

I do not regret the decision because I believe that by holding 
the stuck, I have kept our friendship bond strong.


Like a group of ants sinking...




And dying together.


----------------------------------------------------


Emotional blackmail can also be that you harbor strong feelings of
 loyalty to a person that when you sell the stock the person 
says he or she has, you regard this as an act 
of betrayal towards that person.

For Example:

Ernie is a respectable guru. He has one of the best market
 insights and most of his stock picks go up considerably.

One day, I decided to buy FED at 16. A few days later, 
it rose up to 24 and instead of selling, I decided to hold 
because Ernie said

"LBC will backdoor and the chart is good. 
Not to mention the forward earnings of the company.
Sit Tight!"


A few weeks later, FED died and went back to 15. You hold
 despite the loss because you just cannot betray your guru and
 believe that your loyalty will be rewarded.


Like a small male spider attempting to mate 
with a big female black widow. 





You just don't know if it's worth it in the end.



----------------------------------------------------

But the worst kind of Emotional Blackmail is the one 
that does not spring forth out of Altruism.

One that is deliberate.

Example:

I am a guru or a very influencial person. I have many followers. 
I shall buy a stock and after I have had my fill, I will hype 
with all kinds of crap. I will sell and tell them I am still 
holding even though I am not. 

Why? 

"Because my followers love me."


Like The Assassin Bug that uses the bodies of its victims 
as camouflage and at the same time a trophy to attract 
other bugs and victims.





Always remember that in our markets,
 It's eat or be eaten.


So keep things professional. Because by the end of the day, 
your port is yours alone - not your friend's, and 
definitely not your guru's.



Friday, May 1, 2015

Trading Perspective : Prices and 100 MA








It has come to a surprise for me that even after a few brainwashing
 sessions with the new comers, some still don't know the essence of
 the ZS - or maybe some just failed to read my post about it.

Maybe that explanation was too action packed and geeky.
So here's a fresh perspective for the ladies and the romantics.


This is Romeo



And This is Juliet


And yes. She's upside down.





Or it could be that Romeo is the one who's upside down.
My head is starting to hurt. Let's just say they live in
a very complicated world.


They are lovers. 
They don't know it yet. But they are.
Confused? Don't worry. I'm confused too.

Now here's a chart.



Imagine that blue line to be Romeo. 
He's smooth and determined.

And Juliet, the violet line. 
She's fickle minded.

Now they haven't seen each other for a very long time.

What do you think happens when they do?

MAGIC!




Music Plays in background: "sometimes when we tats!"




Market Thoughts : Trolling The Truth





People nowadays are so used to hearing lies that they 
think what they hear is truth. It could 
also be that the lies are becoming too good, that those 
who tell them believe it's truth.

And what I find amusing is how low some popular 
market personalities have gone.

They tell you facts, throw in some really good quotes 
from awesome people, then mix in their lies - to make that
 deliciously looking, hell spawn baked muffins.

And the public doesn't even realize 
what's happening until it's too late!




Not that I don't like raisins. But I do hope you get my point.

What happened to our culture?

Don't get me wrong. I love our Pinoy pride and spirit
that perseveres and works hard towards achieving our 
dreams and goals.

But what I don't like is this blight that has been slowly creeping in.
To be content of mediocrity than to strive for excellence. 
To endure injustice and stay silent instead
 of standing up against it.


 The only way for evil to triumph, 
is for the righteous to remain silent.


 I don't claim to be righteous. And I do fear for my safety.
But should I remain silent after all the evil 
and corruption I've come to know?

Then it dawned on me.

We all have our own favorite childhood superhero. 
They live everyday life just like everyone else - blending 
in society and at the same time, they serve justice in their 
trademark costumes and masks.

But why?

Why the need for a mask 
If you're doing what's right?

Have you also noticed that in these stories, a lot of their enemies
 would nonchalantly cause wreck and havoc in full view of the
 public?






My mind was blown as my eyes were opened to reality.

Of course I'm not saying I'm going to be a hero or a
"seigi no mikata" coz for some reason, you only become a hero 
in our country when you're DEAD. 

So no thanks. I'll just be a troll who has identity crisis.

And If one day I would find myself in trial I'd tell the judge:




"I swear to Troll the Truth and nothing but the Truth. 
So help me God."